For example, in the hours leading up to the US-Israeli attack on Iran in late February, 150 new accounts appeared on Polymarket and made wagers on the then-looming strikes. Of those accounts, 109 made more than $10,000, and one made more than half a million dollars, according to Casar and Murphy. As Al Jazeera previously reported, one Polymarket user, known as Magamyman, made more than $500,000 with a wager that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power. In August 2025, Donald Trump Jr joined Polymarket’s board. The venture capital firm 1789 Capital, which lists Trump Jr as a partner, backed Polymarket only a month after the Department of Justice dropped its investigation into the platform. He joined in January 2025, only months before the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew an appeal to block a federal court decision allowing Kalshi to offer bets on US elections.